Following a wave of positive news surrounding massive AI investments, it was almost inevitable that ASML, the Dutch company that supplies equipment enabling the manufacturing of silicon chips, would see its order book grow faster than expected.
Its earnings report is an overture to the technology sector announcements, with the market waiting to see how the big spenders in the field have evolved in the past quarter, writes eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu.
. While the long-term growth trend for the technology sector remains solid, investors are wondering how this AI arms race will unfold in the context of renewed US-China tensions and export restrictions for chip-making technology.
ASML, now Europe’s largest company by market capitalization, and the 16th most popular stock on the trading and investing platform eToro globally, reported third-quarter revenue of €7.5 billion, with a Q4 forecast of €9.5 billion, bringing full-year revenue for 2025 to an expected €32.5 billion — a 15% increase on 2024. This year is shaping up to be another strong one for the European “picks and shovels” champion, which has been benefiting from the AI investment surge. The order book expanded by €5.4 billion in Q3, with a standout €3.6 billion of that relating to Extreme Ultra Violet lithography machines (EUV). Only Q4 of 2023 saw higher EUV orders, at €5.6 billion. This is a strong signal that the cutting-edge technology into which ASML has invested billions is being increasingly adopted — a highly encouraging development.
ASML’s CEO Christophe Fouquet remained cautious, however, about 2026, just as he was last quarter. This time, however, he chose to avoid using the word ”growth” to prevent the market from reacting negatively again, as it did in Q2 when it was disappointed by results: ”Revenue in 2026 is expected to be no lower than in 2025.” So, basically, no growth is being promised – and the reason for that seems crystal clear: potential new export restrictions. In the past quarter, as much as 42% of revenue came from China, a country that seems determined to manufacture its own chips using ASML’s groundbreaking technology.
The market continues to believe that the latest escalation in the US-China trade war is temporary, as both countries still rely on each other to maintain economic momentum. ASML shares this view, with Fouquet sticking to the company’s long-term revenue guidance of €44 to €60 billion by 2030. This implies an average annual growth rate of around 10% over the next five years, with a projected range of 7% to 13%.
According to consulting company McKinsey, globally, data center investments are projected to reach nearly $7 trillion by 2030. More than $4 trillion will be allocated to computing hardware and over 40% of this spending is expected to occur in the United States. The analysis shows that global demand for data center capacity can more than triple by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 22%. In the United States, data center demand could grow by 20 to 25% per year over the same period. While current attention is focused on the race for AI, and Gen-AI-led demand is estimated to be around 40% through 2030, other factors lead to this growth. The continuing growth of cloud migration and software as a service, the increasing digitalization of public services, and accelerating technology trends such as the Internet of Things and the rollout of 5G networks will drive additional technology needs.
Should all announced investments in data centers, AI, and chips materialize, ASML’s EUV technology is expected to play a central role. Hitting the upper end of that forecast range will likely require either fewer export restrictions or major product innovations from ASML.
_
Articolul Europe’s AI champion ASML sees increased demand for its chip-making equipment apare prima dată în Universul.net.